Historical GDP Nowcast
2026-Q2Initial Official Release
1.50%Latest Official Release
1.50%
Historical Data: This shows the nowcast evolution for 2026-Q2. You can see how the GDP growth estimate changed as new economic data was released throughout the quarter. This is a purely statistical nowcast and does not represent the views of any individual or organization.
Nowcast Evolution & Component Contributions
Component Details
| Date | Updated Series | Consumption | Equip. | Nonres. struct. | Intel. prop. | Res. Inv. | Inventories ($bn) | Government | Exports | Imports | GDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Initialize | 2.67% | 4.17% | -7.22% | 6.67% | -8.48% | 33.78 | 1.46% | 26.02% | 4.56% | 4.94% |
| 2026-05-04 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 2.67% | 4.17% | -7.22% | 6.67% | -8.48% | 35.00 | 1.46% | 26.02% | 4.56% | 4.96% |
| 2026-05-05 | Real goods exports, Real goods Imports, Housing permits, Houses sold, Res. construction spending | 2.67% | 4.17% | -7.22% | 6.67% | -2.74% | 35.00 | 1.46% | -0.19% | -1.63% | 3.33% |
| 2026-05-07 | Public construction, Nonres Construction spending, Res. construction spending | 2.67% | 4.17% | -6.84% | 6.67% | -2.74% | 35.00 | -0.69% | -0.19% | -1.63% | 2.96% |
| 2026-05-08 | Services hours, Gov. payroll, Intel. property investment | 2.67% | 4.17% | -6.84% | 7.35% | -2.74% | 35.00 | -0.24% | -0.19% | -1.63% | 3.08% |
| 2026-05-13 | Net outlays, Public construction, Intel. property investment, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Nonres Construction spending | 2.67% | 4.17% | -6.75% | 9.25% | -2.74% | 30.69 | 0.02% | -0.19% | -1.63% | 3.16% |
| 2026-05-14 | Vehicle sales, Control retail sales, Real goods exports, Real goods Imports, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 2.92% | 4.17% | -6.75% | 9.25% | -2.74% | 32.23 | 0.02% | -0.19% | -1.63% | 3.36% |
| 2026-05-15 | Gas and wells | 2.92% | 4.17% | -7.57% | 9.25% | -2.74% | 32.23 | 0.02% | -0.19% | -1.63% | 3.33% |
| 2026-05-21 | Housing starts, Housing permits | 2.92% | 4.17% | -7.57% | 9.25% | -6.07% | 32.23 | 0.02% | -0.19% | -1.63% | 3.20% |
| 2026-05-28 | Vehicle sales, IP, Vehicle sales, TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip, Exports, Government, Imports, Intel. property investment, Nonfarm real IVA adjusted, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Nonres. structures investment, Housing permits, Houses sold, Res. construction spending | 2.48% | 3.10% | -7.20% | 4.23% | -5.07% | 29.55 | 0.02% | -0.19% | -1.62% | 2.88% |
| 2026-05-29 | Real goods exports, Real goods Imports, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 2.48% | 3.10% | -7.20% | 4.23% | -5.07% | -32.00 | 0.02% | 27.11% | 14.99% | 2.36% |
| 2026-06-01 | Public construction, Nonres Construction spending, Res. construction spending | 2.48% | 3.10% | -2.10% | 4.23% | 7.49% | -32.00 | -0.09% | 27.11% | 14.99% | 2.96% |
| 2026-06-09 | Vehicle sales, Services hours | 2.48% | 3.10% | -2.10% | 4.23% | 7.49% | -32.00 | -0.09% | 27.11% | 14.99% | 2.96% |
| 2026-06-10 | Intel. property investment | 2.48% | 3.10% | -2.10% | 5.39% | 7.49% | -32.00 | -0.09% | 27.11% | 14.99% | 3.03% |
| 2026-06-11 | Real goods exports, Services Exports, Net outlays, Gov. payroll, Public construction, Real goods Imports, Services Imports, Intel. property investment, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Auto inventories, Nonres Construction spending | 2.48% | 3.10% | -1.79% | 7.69% | 7.49% | 29.61 | 0.29% | 16.73% | 12.48% | 3.64% |
| 2026-06-15 | Gas and wells | 2.48% | 3.10% | -1.79% | 7.69% | 7.49% | 29.61 | 0.29% | 16.73% | 12.48% | 3.64% |
| 2026-06-16 | Real goods exports, Real goods Imports, Housing starts, Housing permits | 2.48% | 3.10% | -1.79% | 7.69% | -4.90% | 29.61 | 0.29% | 16.18% | 12.28% | 3.14% |
| 2026-06-17 | Control retail sales, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 2.48% | 3.10% | -1.79% | 7.69% | -4.90% | -14.46 | 0.29% | 16.18% | 12.28% | 2.36% |
| 2026-06-24 | Housing permits, Houses sold, Res. construction spending | 2.48% | 3.10% | -1.79% | 7.69% | -5.00% | -14.46 | 0.29% | 16.18% | 12.28% | 2.36% |
| 2026-06-25 | Vehicle sales, Vehicle sales, Exports, Government, Imports, Intel. property investment, Auto inventories, Nonres. structures investment, Res. Investment | 1.97% | 7.17% | -1.51% | 9.13% | -5.87% | -26.12 | 0.30% | 10.43% | 12.24% | 1.37% |
| 2026-06-26 | Real goods exports, Real goods Imports, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 1.97% | 7.17% | -1.51% | 9.13% | -5.87% | -55.97 | 0.30% | 19.35% | 17.54% | 1.09% |
| 2026-06-29 | Real goods exports, Real goods Imports | 1.97% | 7.17% | -1.51% | 9.13% | -5.87% | -55.97 | 0.30% | 19.35% | 17.54% | 1.09% |
| 2026-07-01 | Public construction, Nonres Construction spending, Res. construction spending | 1.97% | 7.17% | -1.02% | 9.13% | -4.07% | -55.97 | -0.13% | 19.35% | 17.54% | 1.10% |
| 2026-07-02 | Services hours, Gov. payroll, Intel. property investment, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 1.97% | 7.17% | -1.02% | 9.13% | -4.07% | -55.72 | -0.06% | 19.35% | 17.54% | 1.12% |
| 2026-07-03 | Vehicle sales | 1.83% | 7.17% | -1.02% | 9.13% | -4.07% | -55.72 | -0.06% | 19.35% | 17.54% | 1.02% |
| 2026-07-07 | Real goods exports, Real goods Imports | 1.83% | 7.17% | -1.02% | 9.13% | -4.07% | -55.72 | -0.06% | 13.32% | 13.70% | 0.89% |
| 2026-07-08 | Real goods exports, Services Exports, Services Imports | 1.83% | 7.17% | -1.02% | 9.13% | -4.07% | -55.72 | -0.06% | 15.93% | 13.36% | 1.20% |
| 2026-07-15 | Net outlays, Public construction, Intel. property investment, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Nonres Construction spending | 1.83% | 7.17% | -0.93% | 7.75% | -4.07% | -26.12 | 0.05% | 15.93% | 13.36% | 1.66% |
| 2026-07-16 | Control retail sales, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 2.20% | 7.17% | -0.93% | 7.75% | -4.07% | -59.83 | 0.05% | 15.93% | 13.36% | 1.32% |
| 2026-07-17 | Real goods exports, Real goods Imports, Gas and wells, Housing starts, Housing permits | 2.20% | 7.17% | -0.56% | 7.75% | -4.07% | -59.83 | 0.05% | 15.64% | 13.56% | 1.28% |
| 2026-07-24 | Housing permits, Houses sold, Res. construction spending | 2.20% | 7.17% | -0.56% | 7.75% | -3.78% | -59.83 | 0.05% | 15.64% | 13.56% | 1.29% |
| 2026-07-27 | IP, Vehicle sales, TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip | 2.20% | 3.06% | -0.56% | 7.75% | -3.78% | -59.83 | 0.05% | 15.64% | 13.56% | 1.06% |
| 2026-07-28 | Real goods exports, Real goods Imports, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 2.20% | 3.06% | -0.56% | 7.75% | -3.78% | -103.03 | 0.05% | 15.20% | 11.92% | 0.47% |
| 2026-07-30 | Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 2.20% | 3.06% | -0.56% | 7.75% | -3.78% | -97.98 | 0.05% | 15.20% | 11.92% | 0.56% |