Latest GDP Growth Estimate
2026-Q2
About this nowcast: This estimate synthesizes the latest available economic data to provide a real-time forecast of GDP growth. The chart below shows how the estimate has evolved as new data became available throughout the quarter.
Nowcast Evolution & Component Contributions
Component Details
| Date | Updated Series | Consumption | Equip. | Nonres. struct. | Intel. prop. | Res. Inv. | Inventories ($bn) | Government | Exports | Imports | GDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Initialize | 2.67% | 4.17% | -7.22% | 6.67% | -8.48% | 33.78 | 1.46% | 26.02% | 4.56% | 4.94% |
| 2026-05-04 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 2.67% | 4.17% | -7.22% | 6.67% | -8.48% | 35.00 | 1.46% | 26.02% | 4.56% | 4.96% |
| 2026-05-05 | Real goods exports, Real goods Imports, Housing permits, Houses sold, Res. construction spending | 2.67% | 4.17% | -7.22% | 6.67% | -2.74% | 35.00 | 1.46% | -0.19% | -1.63% | 3.33% |
| 2026-05-07 | Public construction, Nonres Construction spending, Res. construction spending | 2.67% | 4.17% | -6.84% | 6.67% | -2.74% | 35.00 | -0.69% | -0.19% | -1.63% | 2.96% |
| 2026-05-08 | Services hours, Gov. payroll, Intel. property investment | 2.67% | 4.17% | -6.84% | 7.35% | -2.74% | 35.00 | -0.24% | -0.19% | -1.63% | 3.08% |
Understanding the Nowcast
The GDP nowcast provides an estimate of current-quarter economic growth before official statistics are released. It combines data from various economic indicators including:
- Consumer spending and retail sales
- Business investment
- Housing market activity
- Inventory changes
- Government expenditure
- International trade (exports & imports)
- Industrial production
- Employment data