Historical GDP Nowcast
2026-Q1Initial Official Release
1.99%Latest Official Release
1.99%
Historical Data: This shows the nowcast evolution for 2026-Q1. You can see how the GDP growth estimate changed as new economic data was released throughout the quarter.
Nowcast Evolution & Component Contributions
Component Details
| Date | Updated Series | Consumption | Equip. | Nonres. struct. | Intel. prop. | Res. Inv. | Inventories ($bn) | Government | Exports | Imports | GDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Initialize | 2.25% | 1.23% | 4.28% | 6.31% | -2.88% | 5.34 | 0.39% | 3.00% | 7.11% | 1.75% |
| 2026-02-23 | TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip | 2.25% | 1.26% | 4.28% | 6.31% | -2.88% | 5.34 | 0.39% | 3.00% | 7.11% | 1.75% |
| 2026-02-26 | TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 2.25% | 1.26% | 4.28% | 6.31% | -2.88% | 8.30 | 0.39% | 3.00% | 7.11% | 1.80% |
| 2026-02-27 | Public construction, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Nonres Construction spending, Res. construction spending | 2.25% | 1.26% | -5.62% | 6.31% | -2.88% | 9.49 | -0.45% | 3.00% | 7.11% | 1.39% |
| 2026-03-02 | TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip, Net outlays, Intel. property investment, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Nonres Construction spending | 2.25% | 1.26% | -4.74% | 4.95% | -2.88% | 3.88 | -1.68% | 3.00% | 7.11% | 1.03% |
| 2026-03-05 | Real goods exports, Real goods Imports | 2.25% | 1.26% | -4.74% | 4.95% | -2.88% | 3.88 | -1.68% | 3.00% | 7.11% | 1.03% |
| 2026-03-06 | Control retail sales, Services hours, Gov. payroll, Intel. property investment, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 1.97% | 1.26% | -4.74% | 3.82% | -2.88% | 4.83 | -1.21% | 3.00% | 7.11% | 0.88% |
| 2026-03-09 | Vehicle sales, Vehicle sales | 2.00% | 3.56% | -4.74% | 3.82% | -2.88% | 4.83 | -1.21% | 3.00% | 7.11% | 1.02% |
| 2026-03-13 | M. PCE, TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip, Real goods exports, Services Exports, Government, Real goods Imports, Services Imports, Intel. property investment, Auto inventories, Nonres. structures investment, Housing starts, Housing permits | 1.95% | 2.49% | -5.85% | 3.77% | -0.10% | 5.70 | -1.24% | 9.10% | 3.76% | 1.96% |
| 2026-03-16 | IP, Gas and wells | 1.95% | 2.49% | -4.70% | 3.77% | -0.10% | 5.70 | -1.24% | 9.10% | 3.76% | 2.00% |
| 2026-03-18 | TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 1.95% | 3.62% | -4.70% | 3.77% | -0.10% | 5.27 | -1.24% | 9.10% | 3.76% | 2.05% |
| 2026-03-19 | TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip, Net outlays, Public construction, Intel. property investment, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Nonres Construction spending, Houses sold, Res. construction spending | 1.95% | 3.62% | -5.08% | 6.05% | -0.10% | 5.19 | -1.41% | 9.10% | 3.76% | 2.13% |
| 2026-03-23 | Public construction, Nonres Construction spending, Res. construction spending | 1.95% | 3.62% | 0.01% | 6.05% | -8.20% | 5.19 | -0.00% | 9.10% | 3.76% | 2.21% |
| 2026-03-25 | Real goods Imports | 1.95% | 3.62% | 0.01% | 6.05% | -8.20% | 5.19 | -0.00% | 9.10% | 2.76% | 2.34% |
| 2026-03-30 | Housing permits | 1.95% | 3.62% | 0.01% | 6.05% | -8.20% | 5.19 | -0.00% | 9.10% | 2.76% | 2.34% |
| 2026-04-01 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 1.95% | 3.62% | 0.01% | 6.05% | -8.20% | -49.48 | -0.00% | 9.10% | 2.76% | 1.40% |
| 2026-04-03 | Control retail sales, Services hours, Real goods exports, Services Exports, Gov. payroll, Real goods Imports, Services Imports, Intel. property investment | 2.33% | 3.62% | 0.01% | 5.46% | -8.20% | -49.48 | -0.05% | 6.62% | 16.13% | -0.28% |
| 2026-04-06 | Vehicle sales, Vehicle sales | 2.04% | 5.70% | 0.01% | 5.46% | -8.20% | -49.48 | -0.05% | 6.62% | 16.13% | -0.37% |
| 2026-04-07 | AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip | 2.04% | 2.02% | 0.01% | 5.46% | -8.20% | -49.48 | -0.05% | 6.62% | 16.13% | -0.56% |
| 2026-04-09 | M. PCE, Equipment. Investment, Exports, Government, Imports, Intel. property investment, Auto inventories, Nonres. structures investment, Res. Investment | 1.62% | 2.17% | 0.21% | 5.45% | -8.43% | -18.90 | -0.05% | 6.62% | 16.14% | -0.19% |
| 2026-04-10 | Control retail sales, Equipment. Investment, Exports, Government, Imports, Intel. property investment, Nonfarm real IVA adjusted, Nonres. structures investment, Res. Investment | 0.86% | 5.73% | 0.21% | 5.45% | -8.43% | -65.27 | -0.05% | 6.62% | 16.14% | -1.29% |
| 2026-04-13 | Consumption, Equipment. Investment, Exports, Government, Imports, Intel. property investment, Inventories, Nonres. structures investment, Res. Investment | 0.86% | 5.73% | 0.21% | 5.45% | -8.43% | -65.27 | -0.05% | 6.62% | 16.14% | -1.29% |
| 2026-04-14 | Consumption, TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, ComputerNetShip, Exports, Net outlays, Public construction, Imports, Intel. property investment, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Nonres Construction spending, Res. Investment | 0.86% | 5.73% | 0.11% | 1.87% | -8.43% | -65.27 | -0.11% | 6.62% | 16.14% | -1.50% |
| 2026-04-15 | Consumption, Equipment. Investment, Exports, Government, Imports, Intel. property investment, Inventories, Nonres. structures investment, Res. Investment | 0.86% | 5.73% | 0.11% | 1.87% | -8.43% | -65.27 | -0.11% | 6.47% | 16.86% | -1.60% |
| 2026-04-16 | Consumption, Equipment. Investment, Exports, Government, Imports, Intel. property investment, Inventories, Nonres. structures investment, Res. Investment | 0.86% | 5.73% | -4.04% | 1.87% | -8.43% | -65.27 | -0.11% | 6.47% | 16.86% | -1.71% |
| 2026-04-17 | Consumption, Equipment. Investment, Exports, Government, Imports, Intel. property investment, Inventories, Nonres. structures investment, Res. Investment | 0.86% | 5.73% | -4.04% | 1.87% | -8.43% | -65.27 | -0.11% | 6.47% | 16.86% | -1.71% |
| 2026-04-21 | Control retail sales | 1.18% | 5.73% | -4.04% | 1.87% | -8.43% | -65.27 | -0.11% | 6.47% | 16.86% | -1.50% |
| 2026-04-22 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 1.18% | 5.73% | -4.04% | 1.87% | -8.43% | -37.08 | -0.11% | 6.47% | 16.86% | -1.03% |
| 2026-04-29 | AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip, Real goods exports, Real goods Imports, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Housing starts, Housing permits | 1.18% | 2.00% | -4.04% | 1.87% | 5.91% | -33.71 | -0.11% | 16.57% | 22.27% | -0.26% |
| 2026-04-30 | M. PCE, Vehicle sales, Control retail sales, Services hours, TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, Real goods exports, Services Exports, Net outlays, Gov. payroll, Public construction, Real goods Imports, Services Imports, Intel. property investment, Total Bus. Inventories, Nonfarm real IVA adjusted, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Auto inventories, Nonres Construction spending, Gas and wells, Housing starts, Housing permits, Houses sold, Res. construction spending | 1.18% | 23.89% | -4.04% | 1.87% | 5.91% | 6.57 | -0.11% | 16.57% | 22.27% | 1.51% |