Latest GDP Growth Estimate
2025-Q4
About this nowcast: This estimate synthesizes the latest available economic data to provide a real-time forecast of GDP growth. The chart below shows how the estimate has evolved as new data became available throughout the quarter.
Nowcast Evolution & Component Contributions
Component Details
| Date | Updated Series | Consumption | Equip. | Nonres. struct. | Intel. prop. | Res. Inv. | Inventories ($bn) | Government | Exports | Imports | GDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-25 | Initialize | 4.18% | -6.03% | -6.39% | 5.24% | -6.04% | 0.13 | -2.03% | -0.66% | 2.67% | 2.26% |
| 2025-12-29 | Vehicle sales, Vehicle sales, Auto inventories | 4.18% | -6.04% | -6.39% | 5.24% | -6.04% | 0.13 | -2.03% | -0.66% | 2.67% | 2.26% |
| 2025-12-30 | M. PCE, Nonfarm real IVA adjusted | 4.26% | -6.04% | -6.39% | 5.24% | -6.04% | -13.49 | -2.03% | -0.66% | 2.67% | 2.05% |
| 2026-01-07 | TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 4.26% | -6.04% | -6.39% | 5.24% | -6.04% | -13.56 | -2.03% | -0.66% | 2.67% | 2.05% |
| 2026-01-08 | TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip | 4.26% | 1.78% | -6.39% | 5.24% | -6.04% | -13.56 | -2.03% | -0.66% | 2.67% | 2.08% |
| 2026-01-09 | Services hours, Real goods exports, Services Exports, Gov. payroll, Real goods Imports, Services Imports, Housing starts, Housing permits | 4.26% | 1.78% | -6.39% | 5.24% | -4.80% | -13.56 | 1.68% | 1.75% | 3.02% | 3.10% |
| 2026-01-13 | Houses sold, Res. construction spending | 4.26% | 1.78% | -6.39% | 5.24% | -4.80% | -13.56 | 1.68% | 1.75% | 3.02% | 3.10% |
| 2026-01-14 | Control retail sales, TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip, Net outlays, Public construction, Intel. property investment, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Nonres Construction spending | 4.26% | 8.39% | -6.40% | 5.67% | -4.80% | 27.34 | 1.68% | 1.75% | 3.02% | 3.92% |
| 2026-01-15 | Real goods Imports | 4.26% | 8.39% | -6.40% | 5.67% | -4.80% | 27.34 | 1.68% | 1.75% | 3.02% | 3.92% |
| 2026-01-16 | IP, Gas and wells | 4.26% | 6.95% | -2.27% | 5.67% | -4.80% | 27.34 | 1.68% | 1.75% | 3.02% | 4.05% |
| 2026-01-21 | Public construction, Nonres Construction spending, Res. construction spending | 4.26% | 6.95% | -2.73% | 5.67% | 7.64% | 27.34 | 1.81% | 1.75% | 3.02% | 4.61% |
| 2026-01-22 | Consumption, Equipment. Investment, Exports, Government, Imports, Intel. property investment, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Nonres. structures investment, Res. Investment | 1.83% | 6.95% | -2.51% | 5.70% | 7.22% | 27.24 | 1.81% | 1.76% | 3.03% | 2.75% |
| 2026-01-23 | M. PCE, Vehicle sales, Vehicle sales, Nonfarm real IVA adjusted, Auto inventories | 2.83% | 5.03% | -2.51% | 5.70% | 7.22% | -7.76 | 1.81% | 1.76% | 3.03% | 2.82% |
| 2026-01-26 | TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 2.83% | 3.93% | -2.51% | 5.70% | 7.22% | -7.76 | 1.81% | 1.76% | 3.03% | 2.82% |
| 2026-01-27 | Housing permits | 2.83% | 3.93% | -2.51% | 5.70% | 7.22% | -7.76 | 1.81% | 1.76% | 3.03% | 2.82% |
Understanding the Nowcast
The GDP nowcast provides an estimate of current-quarter economic growth before official statistics are released. It combines data from various economic indicators including:
- Consumer spending and retail sales
- Business investment
- Housing market activity
- Inventory changes
- Government expenditure
- International trade (exports & imports)
- Industrial production
- Employment data