Latest GDP Growth Estimate
2025-Q3
About this nowcast: This estimate synthesizes the latest available economic data to provide a real-time forecast of GDP growth. The chart below shows how the estimate has evolved as new data became available throughout the quarter.
Nowcast Evolution & Component Contributions
Component Details
| Date | Updated Series | Consumption | Equip. | Nonres. struct. | Intel. prop. | Res. Inv. | Inventories | Government | Exports | Imports | GDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | M. PCE, Vehicle sales, Control retail sales, Services hours, IP, Vehicle sales, TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip, Real goods exports, Services Exports, Net outlays, Gov. payroll, Public construction, Real goods Imports, Services Imports, Intel. property investment, Total Bus. Inventories, Nonfarm real IVA adjusted, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Auto inventories, Nonres Construction spending, Gas and wells, Housing starts, Housing permits, Houses sold, Res. construction spending | 2.73% | 3.41% | -0.99% | 4.92% | -3.24% | -77.60 | 1.18% | 6.08% | -4.64% | 2.43% |
Understanding the Nowcast
The GDP nowcast provides an estimate of current-quarter economic growth before official statistics are released. It combines data from various economic indicators including:
- Consumer spending and retail sales
- Business investment
- Housing market activity
- Inventory changes
- Government expenditure
- International trade (exports & imports)
- Industrial production
- Employment data