Historical GDP Nowcast
2026-Q3
Historical Data: This shows the nowcast evolution for 2026-Q3. You can see how the GDP growth estimate changed as new economic data was released throughout the quarter. This is a purely statistical nowcast and does not represent the views of any individual or organization.
Nowcast Evolution & Component Contributions
Component Details
| Date | Updated Series | Consumption | Equip. | Nonres. struct. | Intel. prop. | Res. Inv. | Inventories ($bn) | Government | Exports | Imports | GDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Initialize | 3.10% | 7.60% | -9.97% | 7.22% | 0.10% | -6.00 | 0.43% | 5.46% | 2.81% | 3.76% |
| 2026-07-31 | Vehicle sales, Vehicle sales, Auto inventories | 3.10% | 7.64% | -9.97% | 7.22% | 0.10% | -6.00 | 0.43% | 5.46% | 2.81% | 3.76% |
| 2026-08-03 | Public construction, Nonres Construction spending, Res. construction spending | 3.10% | 7.64% | -2.30% | 7.22% | 0.10% | -6.00 | 0.22% | 5.46% | 2.81% | 3.95% |
| 2026-08-04 | Real goods exports, Real goods Imports, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 3.10% | 7.64% | -2.30% | 7.22% | 0.10% | -11.37 | 0.22% | 7.20% | 4.30% | 3.84% |
| 2026-08-07 | Vehicle sales, Gov. payroll, Intel. property investment | 3.10% | 7.64% | -2.30% | 7.17% | 0.10% | -11.37 | -0.62% | 7.20% | 4.30% | 3.69% |
| 2026-08-12 | Real goods exports, Real goods Imports, Res. construction spending | 3.10% | 7.64% | -2.30% | 7.17% | 0.10% | -11.37 | -0.62% | 7.20% | 5.85% | 3.47% |
| 2026-08-13 | Net outlays, Public construction | 3.10% | 7.64% | -2.30% | 7.17% | 0.10% | -11.37 | -0.59% | 7.20% | 5.85% | 3.47% |
| 2026-08-14 | Control retail sales, Net outlays | 2.11% | 7.64% | -2.30% | 7.17% | 0.10% | -11.37 | -0.96% | 7.20% | 5.85% | 2.73% |
| 2026-08-18 | IP, Real goods exports, Real goods Imports, Intel. property investment, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Gas and wells, Housing starts, Housing permits, Res. construction spending | 2.11% | 10.31% | -2.31% | 7.93% | -2.77% | -12.25 | -0.96% | 7.20% | 4.30% | 3.02% |
| 2026-08-25 | Housing permits, Houses sold, Res. construction spending | 2.11% | 10.31% | -2.31% | 7.93% | -2.77% | -12.25 | -0.96% | 7.20% | 4.30% | 3.02% |
| 2026-08-26 | Vehicle sales, Vehicle sales, Exports, Government, Imports, Intel. property investment, Auto inventories, Nonres. structures investment, Res. Investment | 2.44% | 12.18% | -1.34% | 7.93% | -2.88% | -28.52 | -0.96% | 7.20% | 4.30% | 3.11% |
| 2026-08-27 | Real goods exports, Real goods Imports, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 2.44% | 12.18% | -1.34% | 7.93% | -2.88% | 156.26 | -0.96% | 9.60% | 13.51% | 5.37% |
| 2026-09-01 | Public construction, Nonres Construction spending, Res. construction spending | 2.44% | 12.18% | -4.34% | 7.93% | 2.34% | 156.26 | -1.50% | 9.60% | 13.51% | 5.39% |
| 2026-09-02 | TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 2.44% | 10.33% | -4.34% | 7.93% | 2.34% | 153.28 | -1.50% | 9.60% | 13.51% | 5.23% |
| 2026-09-03 | TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip, Real goods exports, Services Exports, Real goods Imports, Services Imports | 2.44% | 23.83% | -4.34% | 7.93% | 2.34% | 153.28 | -1.50% | 1.52% | 12.55% | 5.15% |
| 2026-09-04 | Vehicle sales, Vehicle sales, Gov. payroll, Intel. property investment | 2.44% | 23.83% | -4.34% | 7.93% | 2.34% | 153.28 | -0.73% | 1.52% | 12.55% | 5.28% |
| 2026-09-10 | TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip, Net outlays, Public construction, Intel. property investment, Nonres Construction spending | 2.44% | 15.07% | -4.37% | 8.62% | 2.34% | 153.28 | -0.79% | 1.52% | 12.55% | 4.86% |
| 2026-09-14 | Net outlays | 2.44% | 15.07% | -4.37% | 8.62% | 2.34% | 153.28 | -1.18% | 1.52% | 12.55% | 4.79% |
| 2026-09-16 | Control retail sales, Real goods exports, Real goods Imports | 2.44% | 15.07% | -4.37% | 8.62% | 2.34% | 153.28 | -1.18% | 2.03% | 12.34% | 4.88% |
| 2026-09-17 | Housing starts, Housing permits | 2.44% | 15.07% | -4.37% | 8.62% | -1.92% | 153.28 | -1.18% | 2.03% | 12.34% | 4.71% |
| 2026-09-18 | IP, Gas and wells | 2.44% | 15.07% | -4.37% | 8.62% | -1.92% | 153.28 | -1.18% | 2.03% | 12.34% | 4.71% |
| 2026-09-24 | Housing permits, Houses sold, Res. construction spending | 2.44% | 15.07% | -4.37% | 8.62% | -1.60% | 153.28 | -1.18% | 2.03% | 12.34% | 4.73% |
| 2026-09-25 | TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip | 2.44% | 16.24% | -4.37% | 8.62% | -1.60% | 153.28 | -1.18% | 2.03% | 12.34% | 4.79% |
| 2026-09-29 | Control retail sales | 2.44% | 16.24% | -4.37% | 8.62% | -1.60% | 153.28 | -1.18% | 2.03% | 12.34% | 4.79% |
| 2026-09-30 | Vehicle sales, Vehicle sales, Real goods exports, Government, Real goods Imports, Intel. property investment, Nonres. structures investment, Res. Investment | 2.85% | 18.58% | -3.33% | 10.19% | -0.85% | 153.28 | -1.10% | 6.62% | 19.99% | 5.10% |
| 2026-10-01 | Public construction, Nonres Construction spending, Res. construction spending | 2.85% | 18.58% | -4.11% | 10.19% | 5.94% | 153.28 | -0.91% | 6.62% | 19.99% | 5.36% |
| 2026-10-02 | Vehicle sales, TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip, Gov. payroll, Intel. property investment | 3.29% | 15.14% | -4.11% | 10.19% | 5.94% | 153.28 | 0.07% | 6.62% | 19.99% | 5.65% |
| 2026-10-05 | Total Bus. Inventories, Nonfarm real IVA adjusted, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Auto inventories | 3.29% | 15.14% | -4.11% | 10.19% | 5.94% | 95.05 | 0.07% | 6.62% | 19.99% | 4.61% |
| 2026-10-06 | TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip, Real goods exports, Real goods Imports, Services Imports | 3.29% | 14.87% | -4.11% | 10.19% | 5.94% | 95.05 | 0.07% | 0.92% | 16.11% | 4.43% |
| 2026-10-15 | Control retail sales, TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip, Net outlays, Intel. property investment, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Nonres Construction spending | 3.43% | 14.85% | -2.13% | 4.12% | 5.94% | 100.00 | 0.05% | 0.92% | 16.11% | 4.32% |
| 2026-10-16 | IP, Real goods exports, Public construction, Real goods Imports, Gas and wells | 3.43% | 14.17% | 3.83% | 4.12% | 5.94% | 100.00 | 0.05% | -2.27% | 16.51% | 4.02% |
| 2026-10-19 | Net outlays | 3.43% | 14.17% | 3.83% | 4.12% | 5.94% | 100.00 | -0.07% | -2.27% | 16.51% | 4.00% |
| 2026-10-20 | Housing starts, Housing permits | 3.43% | 14.17% | 3.83% | 4.12% | 2.00% | 100.00 | -0.07% | -2.27% | 16.51% | 3.86% |